My obsession

Okay, I realize this trading deadling question is boring as hell, but I'm obsessed with it.

I had forgotten about Baseball Prospectus's Postseason Odds page, which I think is a much better place to start when it come to who the sellers might be this season. I've got to backtrack on my demise of the Phillies -- I had completely forgotten about the existence of Jim Thome when I predicted them as dead. Really, while I have varying degrees of confidence about my projections, the NL East is my biggest question mark. I truly believe that the Marlins will win the division and the Braves will win the Wild Card. After that, I have no idea how many wins we'll see from the Mets, Nationals, and Phillies. Moreover, it wouldn't shock me if one of those teams passed the Braves to take the Wild Card (or at least second place in the division) based on what we've seen thus far. And even when some team does finish in last place, they'll still probably win 80 games. (I still think it's possible that that the Nationals will collapse, though.)

Now, onto the hopeless eight:

• Devil Rays
• Royals
• Mariners
• Athletics
• Pirates
• Reds
• Astros
• Rockies

I'm not saying the other teams will actually go to the playoffs, of course. The only sure thing that I see is the Cardinals, and even they have an 18 percent chance of staying home, the same as the Padres [!], according to these models.

And, soon, I'll start to look at who have relievers to trade and expiring contracts among those eight.