Who is Nomar Garciaparra?

And what can we expect from him this year?

Let's look at the most recent five seasons.
G: 21, 156, 156, 81, 62
H: 24, 197, 198, 99, 65
2B: 3, 56, 37, 21, 12
HR: 4, 24, 28, 9, 9
BA: .289, .310, .301, .308, .283
OBP: .352, .352, .345, .365, .320
SLG: .470, .528, .524, .477, .452

Looking at those batting average numbers, I think it seems pretty likely that Nomar, healthy or not, will bat .300. And his onbase percentage, while it has declined as well, has held pretty steady, too. The evidence, though, suggests a pretty big drop in power. He lost 47 points of slugging from 2003 to 2004, and 25 more from 2004 to 2005. In a 600 at bat season, those 72 points translate to 43 bases -- let's call it 10 runs. And there's no real reason to believe that he'll increase to his former levels. He'll be 32 this season, and players get worse after they pass 28, not better. I think there's a pretty good chance that he declines another 25 points in slugging, which means .425 SLG to match that .320 OBP from last year.

What players in their early 30s had a .750 OPS last year? I poked around the stats a little to find a good match, and that's pretty similar to what Aubrey Huff did last year -- .321 OBP and .428 slugging. He played a full season, with 575 at bats, 150 hits, 22 homers. And Hardball Times translated those numbers to 13 batting win shares. If you got to the bottom of this list, you'll see players who had about production or better.

Nomar, even if healthy, will probably be overpaid. And he probably won't be healthy.

Thanks for the memories, No. 5.