GOP-redictions

I was just looking at my old predictions, preparing to gloat about how I've predicted great things for Huckabee. Turns out, I actually listed him as winning the GOP nomination. Well, I'm not about to go that far. Here's how I see things playing out:

1. Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney second.
Because the earth is only 10 thousand years old.

2. McCain wins New Hampshire, Guiliani second, McCain third, Ron Paul fourth.
I thought McCain was dead a few months ago. So I've flipped on that. But here's the thing: Huckabee doesn't have any money to keep his Iowa-mentum going. Though he should do pretty well in South Carolina.

3. Huckabee wins South Carolina. Fred Thompson finishes second, McCain third. Romney is in free-fall from the disappointing Iowa and New Hampshire finishes. The evangelicals in the South refuse to vote for a Mormon. He drops out after this one.

So, who's left? After the early primaries? Huckabee, McCain, Guiliani, and Thompson. Guiliani, despite winning nothing, is in good shape because of the delegate-rich contests in California and New York (along with the Republicans' pathetic winner-take-all rules). But if one candidate -- and only one -- can hang around after New York and Califoria and whatever other early states happen -- Michigan and Florida, I believe -- then the anti-Guiliani vote amasses around that candidate.

Your 2008 Republican Nominee? Fred Thompson. Seriously.